Chance it happens
83%Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together.
Outcomes (date buckets)
Cumulative — chance it happens by a date
Resolution criteria
First FDA approved senolytic on the market
Evidence & context
Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.
This is a news report that the FDA cleared an IND for Rubedo Life Sciences' RLS-1496, enabling a Phase 1b/2a trial in actinic keratosis. It bears on the prognosis because it documents a senescence-targeting drug entering human clinical development, an early but concrete milestone on the path toward eventual FDA approval.
This is the company homepage for Rubedo Life Sciences, which describes itself as a clinical-stage biotech focused on targeting aging biology and presents a pipeline related to senescence-driven disease. It is relevant because it is direct evidence that at least one company is advancing putative senolytic programs toward commercialization, though it does not document FDA approval or a marketed product.
This page is a LinkedIn post discussing news that Rubedo's senolytic candidate RLS-1496 received FDA clearance to begin a clinical trial for actinic keratosis. It bears on the prediction because FDA-cleared human trials are a concrete milestone on the path toward the first FDA-approved commercial senolytic.
This is a company/partner announcement about a clinical-development milestone for UNITY Biotechnology treatments targeting age-related disease. It bears on the forecast because UNITY is a prominent senolytics developer, so clinical progress is relevant evidence about the timeline to a first marketed FDA-approved senolytic, though it is not approval-level evidence itself.
This is a Fight Aging! news/blog post reporting that a senolytic showed improved visual function in a small macular degeneration trial. It is relevant because it indicates clinical progress for senolytic therapies, which bears on the timeline to a first FDA-approved senolytic reaching market.
This is Rubedo Life Sciences' investor/news page, listing company announcements about its pipeline, funding, and development programs in age-related diseases. Because Rubedo is a senotherapeutics/senolytics company, its progress is relevant background evidence for forecasting when the first FDA-approved senolytic may reach market, though this page is indirect and not a specific approval milestone.
This is a genuine ClinicalTrials.gov study record for trial NCT04857996. A registered clinical trial is relevant pipeline evidence for forecasting when the first FDA-approved senolytic might reach market, though the provided snippet does not reveal the specific drug or sponsor.