Predictions
Chance it happens
71%Happens 71%No 14%Other 14%
Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.
Outcomes
By end of 202714.3%
202814.3%
202914.3%
203014.3%
2031 or later14.3%
Never as an Anthropic program14.3%
Other14.3%
Resolution criteria
A candidate for which Anthropic is the originator or sponsor enters a registered Phase 1. Resolution horizon: 2031-12-31. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov.
Evidence & context
Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.
Anthropic
This is a social post linking to a CNBC news report that Anthropic is starting an internal drug discovery program. It is indirect but relevant evidence because it indicates Anthropic is moving toward therapeutics R&D, which affects the likelihood and timing of eventually sponsoring a registered Phase 1 trial.
Belief over time — chance it happens
Jul 1Jul 1
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