In which year will it become possible to keep a mammalian head alive outside the body for at least 1 hour?

approved openMultiple choicePrognosis made 2 Jul 2026Voting closes 1 Nov 20260 traders0.00 cr volume

Chance it happens

71%

Happens 71%No 14%Other 14%

Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.

Outcomes

By end of 202714.3%

2028–202914.3%

2030–203114.3%

2032–203314.3%

2034–203514.3%

Not by end of 203514.3%

Other14.3%

Resolution criteria

Resolves on the year of the first credibly documented demonstration in which an isolated mammalian head is kept biologically viable outside the body (perfused, with measurable neural activity) for at least one hour. Resolution horizon: 2035-12-31. Source: peer-reviewed publication / credible scientific reporting.

Belief over time — chance it happens

Jul 2Jul 2

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