Will Retro Biosciences publish first human safety/PK/biomarker data on RTR242 and move to Phase 2 by 30 Jun 2028?
Chance it happens
20%Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.
Outcomes
Resolution criteria
Retro publishes early clinical data on RTR242 (autophagy, Alzheimer's) and announces a Phase 2 start. Resolution horizon: 2028-06-30. Source: Retro, registry.
Evidence & context
Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.
This is Retro Biosciences' pipeline page listing RTR242 for Alzheimer's disease as an autophagy small molecule program. It appears to place RTR242 before Phase 1/2, which is relevant baseline evidence for forecasting whether the company will later publish first human safety/PK/biomarker data and advance into Phase 2 by 2028-06-30.
This is a news report stating that Retro Biosciences has commenced a first-in-human trial, which is directly relevant because the prediction concerns whether RTR242 will later produce human safety/PK/biomarker data and advance to Phase 2. It is not itself the Phase 2 start or the publication of early clinical data, but it is strong milestone evidence that the program is in human testing.
This is a news/article page reporting that Retro Biosciences has started a human safety trial for an autophagy-promoting candidate, which appears directly related to RTR242. It is relevant because trial initiation is an early milestone that informs the likelihood of later safety/PK/biomarker readouts and a Phase 2 start by June 30, 2028.
This appears to be a MedPath news page summarizing that Retro Biosciences' autophagy-focused neurodegeneration program has advanced to human trials. It is relevant because the prediction depends on RTR242 reaching early clinical readouts and Phase 2, and evidence of entry into human testing informs that trajectory, even though this page does not itself confirm safety/PK/biomarker data or a Phase 2 start.
This is a Facebook post from TechTimes reporting that Retro Biosciences has started a Phase 1 first-in-human trial of RTR242. It is relevant because Phase 1 initiation is an early clinical milestone for the program, though it does not report human safety/PK/biomarker data or a Phase 2 start.