Will ER-100 show restored visual function beyond safety?
Chance it happens
33%Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.
Outcomes
Resolution criteria
An ER-100 report shows a statistically significant improvement in visual function, not just a safety profile. Resolution horizon: 2028-06-30. Source: company, peer-reviewed publication.
Evidence & context
Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.
This is the company's pipeline page describing ER-100 development status. It states ER-100 received FDA authorization for first-in-human studies on January 15, 2026 and that the Phase I study is designed to evaluate safety and tolerability in optic neuropathies, which is relevant because it indicates the program is at an early safety-focused stage rather than reporting restored visual function beyond safety.
This is a company press release announcing first-patient dosing in a Phase 1 trial of ER-100 for glaucoma and NAION. It is on-topic because it confirms clinical development has begun, which modestly informs the likelihood of later efficacy readouts, though it does not report statistically significant visual-function improvement.
This is a company pipeline page stating that ER-100 (AAV2-OSK) is in Phase I clinical trials for optic neuropathies and frames the program as aiming to restore vision if successful. It is relevant background evidence about the existence and intended efficacy target of ER-100, though it does not report statistically significant visual-function results.
This is a ClinicalTrials.gov study record for ER-100 in people with glaucoma or a related optic neuropathy indication. It is directly on-topic because it establishes that ER-100 is in human testing, though the title suggests a safety-focused trial rather than evidence of restored visual function beyond safety.
This is a news report that Life Bio received FDA IND clearance to start a Phase I first-in-human trial of ER-100 for optic neuropathies. It bears on the prediction because it confirms clinical development is underway and that the trial is intended to assess both safety and potential vision improvement, though it does not report efficacy results.
This is a Phase 1 clinical trial listing for ER-100 in open-angle glaucoma and NAION. It is directly on-topic because it confirms human testing of ER-100, but the page emphasizes safety/enrollment rather than reporting statistically significant visual function improvement.
This is a 2025 news article summarizing Life Biosciences' ARDD 2025 preclinical update and press-release claims about ER-100 in optic neuropathy models. It is relevant because it specifically discusses ER-100's ocular program and reported functional eye-related signals, but it is not a human clinical efficacy report and does not establish the resolution criterion of statistically significant restored visual function.
This is a clinical trial listing for a recruiting Phase 1 study of ER-100 in glaucoma/open-angle glaucoma patients. It is relevant because it shows the program is in early human testing focused primarily on safety, with vision outcomes being monitored, which bears on the likelihood and timing of any later report of statistically significant visual-function improvement.
This appears to be a company announcement that the first patient was dosed in a Phase 1 trial of ER-100. It is relevant because it confirms the program is in human testing, which bears on the likelihood of later efficacy readouts, but it does not report restored visual function or statistically significant benefit.
This is a Facebook post by David A. Sinclair stating that the first human dose of ER-100 has been delivered and expressing hope that age restoration effects seen in mice and non-human primates will translate to humans. It is relevant because it indicates ER-100 has entered human testing, but it does not report any statistically significant visual-function efficacy results.