Chance it happens
25%Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.
Outcomes
Resolution criteria
The first Phase 2 / pivotal ER-100 report vs its pre-declared primary endpoint. Resolution horizon: 2030-12-31. Source: company, registry.
Evidence & context
Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.
This is a ClinicalTrials.gov study record for an ER-100 trial, which is directly relevant because registry entries define the study phase, design, and pre-declared primary endpoint used for later resolution. It is prognostic evidence about the program, even if it does not itself report whether the endpoint was met.
This is a company press release announcing FDA IND clearance for ER-100 and the planned initiation of its first-in-human Phase 1 study in optic neuropathies. It is relevant because it confirms the program is entering clinical development, which bears on the likelihood and timeline of any future Phase 2 primary endpoint readout.
This is a company pipeline page stating that ER-100 (AAV2-OSK) is Life Biosciences' lead candidate for optic neuropathies and is currently in Phase I clinical trials. It is relevant because it establishes the program's development stage, which informs the likelihood and timing of any future Phase 2 primary-endpoint readout.
This is a company press release announcing first patient dosing for ER-100 in a Phase 1 trial for optic neuropathies. It is genuine program-level evidence because it confirms the asset is in human testing, which bears on the likelihood and timeline of reaching a Phase 2 primary-endpoint readout.
This is the company’s pipeline page describing ER-100 and stating it received FDA authorization on January 15, 2026 to begin first-in-human studies, with a Phase I study in optic neuropathies. It is relevant because it confirms ER-100’s development stage and program existence, which bears on the likelihood and timing of any eventual Phase 2 primary-endpoint readout.
This is a trade-news report that Life Bio received FDA IND clearance to start a first-in-human Phase I trial of ER-100 for optic neuropathies. It is relevant because it establishes ER-100's development stage as pre-Phase 2, which bears on the likelihood and timing of any future Phase 2 primary-endpoint readout.
This appears to be a genuine clinical trial listing for ER-100 on a Veeva clinical trials page. It is Phase 1 rather than Phase 2, so it does not report the target endpoint outcome, but it is still relevant background evidence because it confirms the program indication and that development was at an early stage.
This appears to be a recruiting Phase 1 clinical trial listing for ER-100 in glaucoma, sponsored by Life Biosciences. It is relevant because it indicates the program is still in early human testing, which informs the prognosis for whether a future Phase 2 study will meet its primary endpoint.
This is a news article describing the FDA's January 2026 IND clearance for Life Biosciences' ER-100 and the planned initial ocular clinical testing. It is relevant because it confirms the program is entering human development and provides context on stage, indication, and platform rationale that bear on the likelihood of eventual Phase 2 success.
This appears to be a company announcement, republished on Yahoo Finance, stating that the first patient was dosed in a Phase 1 trial of ER-100. It is relevant because it confirms ER-100 is in early clinical development, which bears on the timeline and prospects for eventually reaching and succeeding on a Phase 2 primary endpoint.
This is an aggregated drug profile page for ER-100 that summarizes development status and related news. It bears on the forecast because it indicates ER-100 was in Phase 1 as of 2026, implying the program was still early and had not yet reached Phase 2 efficacy readout stage.