Will TRIAD (rapamycin in aging dogs, 580 animals, 3-year design) show a survival or disease-onset benefit by 30 Jun 2028?
Chance it happens
40%Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.
Outcomes
Resolution criteria
An interim or final TRIAD report records a significant effect on survival or disease onset. Resolution horizon: 2028-06-30. Source: Dog Aging Project, publication.
Evidence & context
Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.
This is a Texas A&M / Dog Aging Project press release from Dec. 9, 2024 announcing NIH funding to expand TRIAD, a rapamycin trial in aging dogs. It is directly about the named trial and confirms its scale, purpose, and active progress, which is relevant background for forecasting whether a later interim or final report will show benefit by 2028-06-30.
This is the Tufts/Cummings School clinical trial page for TRIAD, the rapamycin-in-aging-dogs study referenced in the prediction. It is directly on-topic because it documents the existence, recruitment status, and institutional framing of the trial whose interim or final results would determine resolution, though it does not itself report efficacy outcomes.
This is a University of Georgia clinical trial page describing the TRIAD rapamycin-in-aging-dogs study. It is directly relevant because it confirms the trial's existence and institutional context, though it does not report interim or final efficacy results on survival or disease onset.
This appears to be a PMC-hosted publication describing the TRIAD rapamycin trial in aging dogs. A study-design paper is genuine, on-topic evidence because it confirms the trial’s existence, endpoints, and planned reporting framework that could later resolve whether survival or disease-onset benefit is shown by June 30, 2028.
This appears to be a news article about the Dog Aging Project's TRIAD rapamycin study in dogs, describing the trial rationale, scale, and funding/status. It bears on the prognosis only indirectly as background on whether the study is active and credible, not as an interim or final efficacy report.