Longevity Prediction Market

A moneyless market where prices are belief signals about longevity prognoses and credits show conviction.

Nobody pays money. Every account gets credits at signup and a weekly stipend when its balance falls below a floor; bidding moves the price, which is read as the chance a prognosis comes true. Prices are set by the logarithmic market scoring rule, a market-maker formula, with a subsidy cap that bounds the house's loss. A prognosis resolves against stated resolution criteria; if it cannot be adjudicated it resolves invalid and the cost basis is refunded.